The Projected Life Expectancy for 2040, According to a Recent Research


A recent report, which was published on Tuesday in the journal The Lancet, reveals that by the year 2040 the average life expectancy in the world will be higher by 4.4 years for both women and men. However, if our choices regarding public health will be wrong, the life expectancy could decrease in almost half the world’s countries, the researchers stated.

The study created three different life expectancy scenarios

In their study, the researchers constructed a model that takes into consideration the major causes of death and health outcomes for 195 countries and territories in 2040. The study was based on a similar research from the past that measured such factors for the period 1990-2016.

The scientists also included in their model 79 factors that affect the health, such as sanitation conditions, access to clean water, smoking and body mass index. In addition to these, they looked at other variables, such as income, fertility rates and education. Once all data was analyzed, three different scenarios were created: “most-likely”, “better-health” and “worse-health”.

The “most-likely” scenario

According to the “most-likely” scenario, the major causes of premature death in 2040 will be ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower-respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes and road injuries. When it comes to life expectancy, in this scenario it will not increase significantly in the U.S. (79.8 years – only 1.1 years up from the 2016 estimate), but some countries, such as Syria (78.6 years, 10.4 rise) and Equatorial Guinea (75.9 years, 10.3 rise) will see a huge rise of the numbers. The life expectancy in Japan, Singapore and Spain could exceed 85 and in 59 other countries could exceed 80.

Other scenarios

In the “better-health” scenario, the average life expectancy in 2040 for a man could be higher by 7.8 years and by 7.2 years for women. Overall, 158 countries could see an increase of at least 5 years, out of which 46 countries could see a rise of more than 10 years.

The “worse-health” scenario, however, predicts that life expectancy in almost half of the examined countries could go down.


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